VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
secondaryplayer
0xc3293d1ea154d5de30ee1e13cbf507e8a8d0f401
Polymarket Trader
RISKY
Below-average risk profile. Proceed with caution.
D
46 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
49
Profitability
45
Consistency
15
Discipline
95
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
55
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$179.73
Win Rate
50%
Resolved Bets
6
Total Trades
174
Volume
$7387
Markets
81
Brier Score
0.2538
Open Positions
48
Brier Skill
-1.5%
Log Loss
0.732
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.00-0.1013%0%2.9%
0.10-0.20214%50%36.5%
0.30-0.40235%50%15.0%
0.50-0.60151%100%48.6%
Calibration Error: 25.8%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0914
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0833
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-1.5%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.7315
Skill: -5.5% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

42
Skill Score
100
Variance
Signals
✓ Net profitable: +$180 total PnL
✓ Well-diversified: 81 unique markets
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Limited resolved data (6 resolved) despite 174 trades across 81 markets — older positions may have been purged from API
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
13d
Txns on Base
265
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$5338
USDC Out
$5233
Provenance
C (43)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $74.7 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Active on-chain: 265 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $10,571
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Young wallet: only 13 days old
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 265 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

174 total trades across 81 markets.

6 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 42/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does D/46 Mean?

Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.

Confidence: D/46 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 6 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-20T00:31:35.178Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket