When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 130 | 6% | 5% | 1.7% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 100 | 16% | 2% | 14.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 104 | 25% | 0% | 24.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 106 | 35% | 0% | 35.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 90 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 104 | 55% | 0% | 54.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 92 | 64% | 0% | 64.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 82 | 75% | 2% | 72.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 64 | 85% | 0% | 84.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 80 | 93% | 5% | 87.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 156 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $1,008 in / $0 out across 51 withdrawal tx since 2025-11-25.
3100 total trades across 58 markets.
952 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 44.1% — needs improvement.
Skill: 7/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -1886.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2726 RES=0.0004 UNC=0.0145.
Log loss: 0.8398 (skill: -995.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/55 [CI95: C→C, 54-56] (952 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.