When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 50 | 5% | 0% | 5.4% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 46 | 15% | 0% | 15.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 78 | 25% | 0% | 25.2% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 86 | 35% | 2% | 32.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 50 | 44% | 0% | 43.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 90 | 56% | 0% | 55.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 100 | 64% | 0% | 64.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 68 | 74% | 0% | 74.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 30 | 84% | 0% | 84.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 62 | 95% | 0% | 95.5% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 63 days, 2822 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $40,643 in / $0 out across 263 withdrawal tx since 2026-02-19.
3100 total trades across 30 markets.
660 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 56/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -10537.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3177 RES=0.0001 UNC=0.0030.
Log loss: 0.9529 (skill: -4526.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/29 ± 3 (high confidence, 660 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.