VIGIL: nullpointa scored B/73

nullpointa

0xc617506a2502a36e8c52e2889e68e11398130d15

Polymarket Trader

SOLID

Process is working. Metrics hold up under scrutiny.

B

73 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

95

Profitability

0

Consistency

100

Discipline

86

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

80

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-10542.19

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

984

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$21166

Markets

358

Brier Score

0.0067

Open Positions

16

Brier Skill

97.3%

Log Loss

0.069

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	884	5%	0%	5.4%
0.10-0.20	86	12%	0%	12.3%
0.20-0.30	2	20%	0%	20.0%
0.30-0.40	10	34%	0%	33.8%
0.50-0.60	2	59%	0%	59.0%

Calibration Error: 6.5%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0059

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

97.3%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.0685

Skill: -765.9% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

52

Skill Score

61

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0067

✓ Brier Skill Score: 97.3% better than naive baseline

✓ Strong live edge: 16 open positions trending profitable

✓ Well-diversified: 358 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Net loss: -$10542 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ PnL divergence: $10542 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

13d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$5848

USDC Out

$5848

Provenance

C (48)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $10542.19 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $11,696

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Young wallet: only 13 days old

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

3100 total trades across 358 markets.

984 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 6.5% — excellent.

Skill: 52/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 61/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 97.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0059 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.0685 (skill: -765.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does B/73 Mean?

This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.

Confidence: B/73 [CI95: B→B, 73-73] (984 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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