When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 14% | 0% | 13.8% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 10 | 26% | 0% | 26.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 16 | 35% | 0% | 35.3% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 31 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 42 | 55% | 0% | 55.5% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 44 | 65% | 0% | 64.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 46 | 74% | 0% | 74.3% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 31 | 85% | 0% | 84.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 15 | 95% | 0% | 95.0% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2037 txs, provenance grade D. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1352 total trades across 265 markets.
242 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 61.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -68.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4206 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1489 (skill: -14429.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.9 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/46 ± 3 (high confidence, 242 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.