When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 8 | 7% | 0% | 6.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 34 | 15% | 0% | 15.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 64 | 26% | 0% | 25.7% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 58 | 36% | 0% | 35.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 44 | 44% | 0% | 44.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 36 | 55% | 0% | 54.6% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 32 | 65% | 0% | 64.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 52 | 76% | 4% | 72.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 36 | 83% | 6% | 77.9% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 2 | 94% | 0% | 93.6% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $6,412 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.
3100 total trades across 116 markets.
366 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 46.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -2429.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2622 RES=0.0004 UNC=0.0108.
Log loss: 0.7619 (skill: -1165.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/53 [CI95: C→C, 52-54] (366 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.