When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 28% | 0% | 27.9% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 11 | 46% | 0% | 46.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 19 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 4 | 64% | 0% | 63.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 3 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 82% | 0% | 82.2% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 1 | 91% | 0% | 90.6% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 2972 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $2,752 in / $0 out across 4 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-06.
3100 total trades across 42 markets.
40 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 55.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -29.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3227 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.8636 (skill: -10821.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 0.5 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/39 [CI95: D→D, 37-41] (40 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.