When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 3 | 3% | 0% | 3.4% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 5 | 14% | 40% | 26.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 5 | 25% | 0% | 24.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 36% | 50% | 14.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 3 | 45% | 33% | 12.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 2 | 54% | 50% | 3.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 63% | 0% | 62.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 74% | 0% | 74.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 3 | 95% | 33% | 61.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 60 days, 298 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
230 total trades across 136 markets.
26 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 27.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 33/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -46.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1236 RES=0.0416 UNC=0.1775.
Log loss: 0.8399 (skill: -55.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 41.2 days before resolution, 88% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/45 ± 15 (low confidence, 26 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.