When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 7% | 0% | 6.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 3 | 16% | 0% | 15.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 8 | 26% | 25% | 0.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 21 | 34% | 14% | 19.8% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 99 | 47% | 2% | 44.5% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 73 | 54% | 3% | 51.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 29 | 64% | 7% | 56.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 12 | 73% | 8% | 64.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 6 | 84% | 0% | 84.3% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 4 | 92% | 0% | 91.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 1253 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
703 total trades across 318 markets.
257 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 46.4% — needs improvement.
Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 24/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -534.1% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2396 RES=0.0027 UNC=0.0445.
Log loss: 0.7746 (skill: -310.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 4.6 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/44 ± 3 (high confidence, 257 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.