When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 15% | 0% | 14.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 9 | 27% | 0% | 27.3% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 17 | 36% | 0% | 36.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 32 | 46% | 0% | 45.9% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 42 | 56% | 0% | 55.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 47 | 65% | 0% | 65.4% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 43 | 75% | 0% | 74.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 31 | 85% | 0% | 85.1% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 18 | 94% | 0% | 94.2% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 3 days, 2040 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
1551 total trades across 269 markets.
246 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 62.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 17/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -71.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.4279 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 1.1677 (skill: -14667.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 1.8 days before resolution, 0% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/47 ± 3 (high confidence, 246 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.