VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
DkOYL
0xd1a63a243042d864520512fbdbd2fd20e0ab1507
Polymarket Trader
SOLID
Process is working. Metrics hold up under scrutiny.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1000 | 1% | 0% | 1.0% |
Calibration Error: 1.0%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0001
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0000
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
100.0%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.0101
Skill: -27.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0001
✓ Brier Skill Score: 100.0% better than naive baseline
✓ Proven track record bonus: +8 pts (1000 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)
✓ Net profitable: +$934 total PnL
✓ Well-diversified: 602 unique markets
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ On-chain: bot-like trading patterns detected (bot score: 60)
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL verified: $423.18 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2992 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $36,271
✓ Diverse trading network: 30 counterparties
⚠ Young wallet: only 13 days old
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
⚠ Bot-like behavior detected: 59 burst txs, median interval 8s
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 13 days, 2992 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 60/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 602 markets.
1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 1.0% — excellent.
Skill: 59/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 100.0% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0001 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.0101 (skill: -27.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does B/74 Mean?
This trader shows genuine forecasting skill with a meaningful edge across multiple markets.
Confidence: B/74 ± 3 (high confidence, 1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.