VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
zxgngl
0xd235973291b2b75ff4070e9c0b01728c520b0f29
Polymarket Trader
DANGER
High probability of further losses.
F
31 / 100
VIGIL Dimensions
Calibration
28
Profitability
0
Consistency
82
Discipline
12
Sample Size
20
Live Edge
40
Raw Metrics
Total PnL
$-7281515.16
Win Rate
83%
Resolved Bets
6
Total Trades
909
Volume
$15679820
Markets
8
Brier Score
0.2052
Open Positions
0
Brier Skill
-47.7%
Log Loss
0.749
Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

BucketBetsExpectedActualError
0.00-0.1014%100%95.9%
0.30-0.40133%0%33.0%
0.60-0.70162%100%38.0%
0.80-0.90180%100%20.0%
0.90-1.00291%100%9.5%
Calibration Error: 34.3%
Reliability (CAL)
0.2052
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.1389
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
-47.7%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.7493
Skill: -66.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Timeliness
100/100
Avg 535d before resolution, 100% early mover
Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

41
Skill Score
70
Variance
Signals
✓ On-chain: 557-day wallet history on Polygon
✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns
⚠ Net loss: -$7281515 total PnL
⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market
⚠ Thin resolved data: only 6 resolved bets
⚠ PnL divergence: $7877091 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Wallet Age
557d
Txns on Base
2000
Counterparties
0
USDC In
$7724261
USDC Out
$7128685
Provenance
B (71)
Protocols: USDC, USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $7877090.69 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Wallet age: 557 days (mature)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $14,852,946
✓ Human-like transaction patterns
⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses
⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers
Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 557 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

909 total trades across 8 markets.

6 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Insufficient resolved bets for calibration analysis.

Skill: 41/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 70/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

What Does F/31 Mean?

No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.

Confidence: F/31 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 6 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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Not financial advice. VIGIL Trust Score is informational only.
Scored: 2026-04-21T05:26:34.728Z | Source: polymarket-v1
JSON: /v1/polymarket/... | /polymarket