VIGIL: Corlys scored C/62

Corlys

0xd23f8c8aab13cfb2a35da40b67f8471faf9894a1

Polymarket Trader

DEVELOPING

Mixed signals. More data needed.

C

62 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

97

Profitability

0

Consistency

100

Discipline

50

Sample Size

100

Live Edge

40

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$-65989.22

Win Rate

0%

Resolved Bets

1000

Total Trades

3100

Volume

$43372

Markets

675

Brier Score

0.003

Open Positions

0

Brier Skill

98.8%

Log Loss

0.041

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	888	3%	0%	2.9%
0.10-0.20	100	11%	0%	10.6%
0.20-0.30	10	21%	0%	21.0%
0.30-0.40	2	33%	0%	33.3%

Calibration Error: 4.0%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0026

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0000

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

98.8%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.0411

Skill: -420.1% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

55

Skill Score

25

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.003

✓ Brier Skill Score: 98.8% better than naive baseline

✓ Well-diversified: 675 unique markets

✓ On-chain: human-like trading patterns

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Net loss: -$65989 total PnL

⚠ Low win rate: 0%

⚠ Concentrated portfolio: 100% in single market

⚠ PnL divergence: $65989 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

20d

Txns on Base

2000

Counterparties

0

USDC In

$7557

USDC Out

$7557

Provenance

C (48)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL divergence: $65989.22 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2000 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $15,113

✓ Human-like transaction patterns

⚠ Young wallet: only 20 days old

⚠ Limited counterparties: only 0 unique addresses

⚠ No contract interactions despite activity — possible EOA-only transfers

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.

3100 total trades across 675 markets.

1000 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 4.0% — excellent.

Skill: 55/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: 98.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0026 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.

Log loss: 0.0411 (skill: -420.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does C/62 Mean?

This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.

Confidence: C/62 [CI95: C→C, 62-62] (1000 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

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