When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 9% | 0% | 8.8% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 16 | 15% | 0% | 14.9% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 28 | 25% | 0% | 24.8% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 26 | 36% | 0% | 36.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 36 | 45% | 0% | 45.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 28 | 56% | 0% | 56.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 22 | 66% | 0% | 65.5% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 20 | 74% | 0% | 74.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 4 | 82% | 0% | 82.4% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 23 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $8,258 in / $0 out across 24 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.
3100 total trades across 112 markets.
182 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 45.9% — needs improvement.
Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 21/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 0.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2474 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6889 (skill: -8612.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/60 ± 8 (medium confidence, 182 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.