When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 27% | 0% | 26.9% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 11 | 38% | 0% | 37.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 40 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 7 | 53% | 0% | 52.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 73% | 0% | 72.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 89% | 0% | 89.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 42 days, 2993 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 50/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $27,004 in / $0 out across 34 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.
3100 total trades across 64 markets.
61 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 45.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 5/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 12/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 13.2% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2164 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6335 (skill: -7911.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/54 [CI95: C→C, 53-55] (61 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.