When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 3% | 0% | 2.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 17% | 0% | 17.2% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 3 | 26% | 0% | 25.6% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 5 | 35% | 0% | 34.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 5 | 45% | 0% | 45.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 4 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 1 | 61% | 0% | 61.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 71% | 0% | 71.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 20 days, 1560 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
721 total trades across 215 markets.
22 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 38.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 14/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 28.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.1784 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.5291 (skill: -6591.9% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 11.8 days before resolution, 55% early mover.
Below average. The data shows poor calibration, thin evidence, or both. When this trader expresses high confidence, events don't happen at the rate they imply.
Confidence: D/43 ± 15 (low confidence, 22 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.