VIGIL: 4-testfollower-hm7 scored F/25

4-testfollower-hm7

0xe6940b14e6652d9f2c6b774e3eb4b35ceeee7e7c

Polymarket Trader

DANGER

High probability of further losses.

F

25 / 100

VIGIL Dimensions

Calibration

51

Profitability

40

Consistency

60

Discipline

89

Sample Size

88

Live Edge

61

Raw Metrics

Total PnL

$19.75

Win Rate

17%

Resolved Bets

202

Total Trades

944

Volume

$10963

Markets

202

Brier Score

0.1716

Open Positions

72

Brier Skill

-22.6%

Log Loss

0.710

Calibration Analysis

When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.

Bucket	Bets	Expected	Actual	Error
0.00-0.10	162	2%	15%	12.6%
0.10-0.20	28	13%	21%	8.3%
0.20-0.30	6	24%	67%	42.2%
0.30-0.40	2	33%	0%	33.3%
0.90-1.00	4	99%	0%	99.0%

Calibration Error: 14.8%

Reliability (CAL)

0.0394

Lower = better calibrated

Resolution (RES)

0.0088

Higher = stronger opinions

Brier Skill Score

-22.6%

vs naive baseline

Log Loss

0.7097

Skill: -56.6% vs naive — sensitive to rare events

Skill & Variance Analysis

Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).

44

Skill Score

100

Variance

Signals

✓ Strong Brier score: 0.1716

✓ Conservative (underconfident) bias

✓ Net profitable: +$20 total PnL

✓ Well-diversified: 202 unique markets

✓ On-chain: 232-day wallet history on Polygon

⚠ High luck component: 100/100 — returns may not persist

⚠ Brier Skill Score: -22.6% — performing worse than naive baseline

⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions

⚠ Log loss penalty: severe overconfidence on wrong bets detected

⚠ Penny-lottery strategy: 80% of bets at sub-$0.10 — score penalized by 30 pts

⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address

⚠ Low win rate: 17%

⚠ On-chain: possible automated trading (bot score: 30)

On-Chain Verification (Polygon)

Wallet Age

232d

Txns on Base

2473

Counterparties

34

USDC In

$5140

USDC Out

$5108

Provenance

B (78)

Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)

PnL verified: $11.38 gap between API and on-chain USDC

✓ Wallet age: 232 days

✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2473 txs

✓ Significant USDC flow: $10,248

⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction

⚠ Possible automated trading: 95 burst txs

Reasoning

On-chain verification: wallet age 232 days, 2473 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 30/100, wash trading score: 20/100.

Polymarket on-chain coverage: $522 in / $1,099 out across 27 withdrawal tx since 2025-12-10.

944 total trades across 202 markets.

202 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.

Calibration error: 14.8% — good.

Skill: 44/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).

Brier Skill Score: -22.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).

Brier decomposition: REL=0.0394 RES=0.0088 UNC=0.1400.

Log loss: 0.7097 (skill: -56.6% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.

What Does F/25 Mean?

No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.

Confidence: F/25 [CI95: F→F, 23-27] (202 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.

Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.

Share This Score

POST ON X SCORE CARD