VIGIL Trust Score for the AI Agent Economy
influenz.eth
0xe8dd7741ccb12350957ec71e9ee332e0d1e6ec86
Polymarket Trader
SHARP
Elite calibration. Metrics hold up under scrutiny.
Calibration Analysis
When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 964 | 1% | 0% | 1.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 6 | 14% | 0% | 13.7% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 2 | 83% | 100% | 17.1% |
Calibration Error: 1.2%
Reliability (CAL)
0.0003
Lower = better calibrated
Resolution (RES)
0.0021
Higher = stronger opinions
Brier Skill Score
83.9%
vs naive baseline
Log Loss
0.0125
Skill: 15.3% vs naive — sensitive to rare events
Skill & Variance Analysis
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
Signals
✓ Strong Brier score: 0.0003
✓ Brier Skill Score: 83.9% better than naive baseline
✓ Log loss skill: 15.3% better than naive (rare-event sensitive)
✓ Proven track record bonus: +8 pts (972 resolved bets, positive BSS, profitable)
✓ Strong live edge: 28 open positions trending profitable
✓ Net profitable: +$1083319 total PnL
✓ Well-diversified: 680 unique markets
✓ On-chain: 448-day wallet history on Polygon
✓ On-chain: diverse counterparty network
⚠ Low resolution: forecasts cluster near base rate — no genuine opinions
⚠ Receive-only wallet: zero outbound transactions — possible proxy/settlement address
⚠ Low win rate: 0%
⚠ PnL divergence: $1073494 gap between API and on-chain USDC flows
On-Chain Verification (Polygon)
Protocols: USDC.e (Bridged)
PnL divergence: $1073494.16 gap between API and on-chain USDC
✓ Wallet age: 448 days (mature)
✓ Heavy on-chain activity: 2847 txs
✓ Significant USDC flow: $91,461
✓ Diverse trading network: 13 counterparties
⚠ Receive-only wallet: never sent a transaction
Reasoning
On-chain verification: wallet age 448 days, 2847 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 25/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 680 markets.
972 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 1.2% — excellent.
Skill: 59/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: 83.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0003 RES=0.0021 UNC=0.0021.
Log loss: 0.0125 (skill: 15.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
What Does A/97 Mean?
This trader demonstrates elite forecasting skill. Their predictions are well-calibrated and consistently beat naive baselines.
Confidence: A/97 ± 3 (high confidence, 972 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.