When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 718 | 2% | 6% | 4.1% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 26 | 13% | 8% | 5.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 20 | 24% | 20% | 4.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 8 | 35% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 28 | 45% | 36% | 9.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 54% | 50% | 3.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 6 | 65% | 67% | 1.9% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 6 | 84% | 33% | 50.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 62 | 98% | 10% | 88.2% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 40 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $17,137 in / $0 out across 343 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-19.
3100 total trades across 426 markets.
886 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 10.8% — good.
Skill: 48/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 100/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -66.9% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.0590 RES=0.0083 UNC=0.0784.
Log loss: 0.5627 (skill: -92.3% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/14 ± 3 (high confidence, 886 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.