When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 42 | 5% | 0% | 5.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 58 | 14% | 0% | 14.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 106 | 25% | 0% | 25.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 116 | 35% | 0% | 35.2% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 216 | 45% | 0% | 45.3% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 200 | 54% | 0% | 54.2% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 106 | 64% | 0% | 64.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 82 | 75% | 0% | 74.8% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 46 | 84% | 0% | 84.5% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 24 | 95% | 0% | 94.8% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 11 days, 2001 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $0 in / $0 out across 0 withdrawal tx since never.
3100 total trades across 244 markets.
996 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 47.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 25/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -8.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2707 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7710 (skill: -9650.4% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 [CI95: C→C, 50-52] (996 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.