When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 1 | 7% | 0% | 6.9% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 15% | 0% | 15.0% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 26% | 0% | 26.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 2 | 37% | 0% | 37.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 1 | 42% | 0% | 42.0% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 1 | 58% | 0% | 58.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 67% | 0% | 67.0% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 74% | 0% | 74.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 1 | 83% | 0% | 83.0% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 196 days, 906 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 10/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
634 total trades across 391 markets.
11 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 46.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 4/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 8/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -9.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2741 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7468 (skill: -9345.1% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
Timeliness: avg entry 11.8 days before resolution, 13% early mover.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/34 ± 25 (very_low confidence, 11 resolved bets). Low confidence — take this score with a grain of salt until more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.