When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 68 | 6% | 0% | 5.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 78 | 15% | 0% | 15.1% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 104 | 25% | 0% | 25.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 76 | 35% | 0% | 35.1% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 158 | 46% | 0% | 45.6% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 204 | 54% | 0% | 53.9% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 94 | 65% | 0% | 64.9% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 76 | 75% | 0% | 74.6% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 70 | 86% | 0% | 86.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 58 | 94% | 0% | 94.4% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 51 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
2000 total trades across 621 markets.
986 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 22/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -20.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3000 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.8701 (skill: -10903.7% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/51 ± 3 (high confidence, 986 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.