When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 4% | 0% | 4.4% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 3 | 14% | 0% | 14.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 1 | 29% | 0% | 29.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 1 | 36% | 0% | 36.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 44 | 48% | 0% | 48.4% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 84 | 52% | 0% | 52.3% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 2 | 64% | 0% | 63.8% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 77% | 0% | 77.4% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 91 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,257 in / $0 out across 63 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.
3100 total trades across 121 markets.
138 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.6% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 16/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -1.5% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2533 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6973 (skill: -8718.5% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/53 [CI95: C→C, 52-54] (138 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.