When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 2 | 4% | 0% | 4.4% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 1 | 16% | 0% | 16.0% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 44 | 49% | 0% | 48.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 63 | 51% | 0% | 51.4% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 1 | 67% | 0% | 67.3% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 1 | 77% | 0% | 77.4% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 21 days, 2998 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $18,257 in / $0 out across 63 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-31.
3100 total trades across 104 markets.
112 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 8/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -0.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2513 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.6937 (skill: -8672.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/53 ± 8 (medium confidence, 112 resolved bets). Moderate confidence — score may shift as more markets resolve.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.