When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 22 | 7% | 0% | 7.3% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 66 | 16% | 0% | 15.5% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 64 | 25% | 0% | 25.1% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 56 | 34% | 0% | 34.5% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 28 | 44% | 0% | 43.8% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 42 | 55% | 0% | 55.0% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 36 | 65% | 0% | 65.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 30 | 74% | 0% | 74.2% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 38 | 85% | 0% | 84.9% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 22 | 92% | 0% | 92.4% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 26 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $13,283 in / $0 out across 30 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.
3100 total trades across 98 markets.
404 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 44.8% — needs improvement.
Skill: 6/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 20/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -7.7% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2684 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.7759 (skill: -9713.0% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/58 [CI95: C→C, 57-59] (404 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.