When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 58 | 5% | 3% | 1.6% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 58 | 16% | 0% | 15.7% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 42 | 23% | 0% | 23.4% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 16 | 34% | 0% | 33.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 20 | 45% | 0% | 45.1% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 12 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 20 | 67% | 0% | 66.6% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 30 | 75% | 0% | 75.5% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 38 | 86% | 0% | 85.6% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 64 | 96% | 0% | 95.7% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 8 days, 2000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 0/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $19,313 in / $0 out across 137 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-17.
3100 total trades across 90 markets.
358 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 47.7% — needs improvement.
Skill: 3/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 29/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -6321.3% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3509 RES=0.0002 UNC=0.0056.
Log loss: 1.1463 (skill: -3217.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/57 [CI95: C→C, 55-59] (358 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.