When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 30 | 7% | 13% | 6.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 24 | 14% | 0% | 14.3% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 66 | 25% | 0% | 25.5% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 66 | 35% | 0% | 34.6% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 48 | 45% | 4% | 41.2% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 51 | 55% | 4% | 51.1% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 69 | 65% | 0% | 65.2% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 68 | 75% | 3% | 72.1% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 36 | 85% | 0% | 85.4% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 20 | 93% | 0% | 92.9% |
Skill measures calibration quality (0-100). Variance measures return volatility (0-100, higher = more volatile).
On-chain verification: wallet age 27 days, 2834 txs, provenance grade B. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 20/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $4,744 in / $0 out across 154 withdrawal tx since 2026-03-26.
3100 total trades across 217 markets.
478 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 49.0% — needs improvement.
Skill: 1/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 51/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -1449.6% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.2981 RES=0.0011 UNC=0.0205.
Log loss: 0.8852 (skill: -771.2% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
No demonstrated forecasting skill. This trader performs at or below random chance based on available data.
Confidence: F/30 ± 3 (high confidence, 478 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.