When this trader buys at $0.70, they imply 70% probability. Perfect calibration = the event happens 70% of the time.
| Bucket | Bets | Expected | Actual | Error |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00-0.10 | 12 | 8% | 0% | 8.5% |
| 0.10-0.20 | 24 | 15% | 0% | 15.4% |
| 0.20-0.30 | 44 | 25% | 0% | 25.0% |
| 0.30-0.40 | 28 | 35% | 0% | 34.7% |
| 0.40-0.50 | 40 | 45% | 0% | 44.7% |
| 0.50-0.60 | 38 | 55% | 0% | 54.8% |
| 0.60-0.70 | 44 | 65% | 0% | 65.1% |
| 0.70-0.80 | 40 | 75% | 0% | 75.0% |
| 0.80-0.90 | 22 | 85% | 0% | 85.0% |
| 0.90-1.00 | 14 | 93% | 0% | 92.6% |
On-chain verification: wallet age 22 days, 3000 txs, provenance grade C. Bot score: 0/100, wash trading score: 80/100.
Polymarket on-chain coverage: $16,635 in / $0 out across 35 withdrawal tx since 2026-04-01.
3100 total trades across 111 markets.
306 bets on resolved markets available for calibration scoring.
Calibration error: 50.5% — needs improvement.
Skill: 0/100 (calibration quality). Variance: 15/100 (higher = more volatile returns).
Brier Skill Score: -24.8% vs naive baseline (>0% = better than always predicting base rate).
Brier decomposition: REL=0.3112 RES=0.0000 UNC=0.0000.
Log loss: 0.8648 (skill: -10836.8% vs naive). Lower log loss = better calibration on rare events.
This trader shows some skill signal, but not enough to clearly distinguish from luck. More data needed.
Confidence: C/59 ± 3 (high confidence, 306 resolved bets). This score is highly reliable — enough resolved bets to be confident.
Methodology: Brier Score Decomposition (Murphy 1973), Log Loss, On-Chain USDC Verification. Same approach used by IARPA to identify superforecasters.